This article was published in Turkish on December 14
The Baath regime, with a 61-year history, unexpectedly collapsed in just 10 days. How could a regime that had managed to survive since 2011 through a devastating and exhausting war, and with significant support from Iran and Russia to fend off jihadists, crumble so quickly? At present, there is widespread confusion and conflicting information. Both nationally and internationally, numerous analyses and evaluations are underway, aiming to decipher the unfolding events, the interventions of imperialist powers and regional forces, and the myriad possibilities involved. However, one crucial point must be emphasized: in a context where balances are constantly shifting and all war fronts—from Syria to Ukraine—converge at a single critical nexus, it is impossible to anticipate every scenario or outcome. From a Marxist perspective, the focus should be on uncovering the root causes of the war and identifying the primary trends. In the most turbulent times, highlighting the overarching framework is far more valuable. The reality is that the Third World War, launched and spearheaded by American imperialism in 2001, is now expanding into new regions and states, becoming increasingly complex. As we will explore below, American imperialism, striving to restore its eroded dominance, is gearing up for an intense confrontation with its biggest rival, China.
Regarding the current state of Syria, the clearest takeaway is this: the fall of the Assad regime marks a significant loss of influence and prestige for Russia and Iran in the Middle Eastern war. Iran, in particular, has faced a severe blow by losing the most critical link in the so-called Shiite Crescent—a geopolitical corridor connecting Iran with Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, essential for its regional dominance. There is no doubt that the US-Israel bloc has emerged as the primary beneficiary of this situation. This bloc, seeking to reshape the Middle East according to its own interests and establish a lasting power balance in its favor, now sees a strategic opening. Turkey, which had previously lost ground in the early stages of the Middle Eastern war and has faced international challenges, has also considerably strengthened its position. Turkey’s pivotal role in shaping Syria’s future will prove to be a decisive factor. However, it is also important to note that this chaotic process could drag Turkey further into the conflict. In our previous analyses, we consistently emphasized that Syria’s political landscape would be shaped by the broader trajectory of the imperialist war. We also highlighted that even if the Assad regime manages to survive, a return to Syria’s former state or territorial unity is highly unlikely. Today, this possibility is even more pronounced. The prospect of jihadists led by HTS, remnants of the old regime, Kurds, and other minorities building a centralized, stable, and enduring political order together in Syria is far-fetched. Furthermore, the potential for the conflict to extend into Iran, coupled with historical examples from Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, and the current reality in Syria, suggests that chaos in the region will only deepen and expand.
War is not a chess game played at a table. As questions like who wins or loses, how maps are redrawn, and how power balances are established dominate discussions, the horrific social devastation of war is often overlooked. In Turkey, particularly, self-proclaimed strategists appearing on bourgeois media with their endless map analyses and incitement of imperial dreams prevent workers from grasping the true horrors of war and empathizing with the peoples of the region. Yet the Middle East, the central front of the Third World War, has been ravaged by unrelenting imperialist wars for the past 20 years. Countries like Iraq, Syria, Libya, Palestine, Lebanon, and Yemen have been pushed back decades. In this cradle of civilization, countless ancient cities, along with towns and modern urban centers, have been reduced to ruins. Mass migrations and the deaths of hundreds of thousands have caused irreversible losses in skilled labor, productive capacities, and cultural heritage. Compared to other Arab nations, Syria stood out as one of the few countries where modern capitalist relations flourished—particularly in Aleppo, Damascus, and coastal cities—and secular lifestyles were widely accepted. However, for decades, its people were oppressed under Assad’s dictatorship, Kurdish demands were brutally suppressed, minority rights were ignored, and opposition voices were silenced with imprisonment. Now, after 13 years of devastating war that forced millions to flee and pushed countless others into literal destitution, the country has been handed over to jihadists led by HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), a faction that evolved from ISIS. We already know the consequences of destroying a modern society and surrendering it to jihadists, as seen in Afghanistan. Looking ahead, sadly, no scenario appears likely to prevent reactionary forces from gaining further strength, Syrian society from fragmenting further, or millions more from being forced into exile.
Now, we can shift from a general overview to a more detailed analysis.
First: In March 2011, the Assad regime crushed protests in several cities, which had started with economic and democratic demands, using state violence. As the popular movement withdrew, the stage was left to jihadist organizations. United States, England, Turkey, Qatar, and Gulf countries tried to create a civil opposition force to overthrow the Assad regime while simultaneously organizing, training, and arming jihadists under the name of the Free Syrian Army. Thus, Syria became the newest link in the imperialist war for control. After jihadists, who had significant support, captured many areas, the balance shifted when Iran intervened in February 2013 and Russia in September 2015 to support the Assad regime. Unable to get sufficient support from the United States to topple the Assad regime and seeking to prevent the Kurds from establishing an autonomous structure, Turkey initiated the Astana talks with Russia and Iran. With Russia’s approval, Turkey occupied parts of Syria, severing the connection between Kurdish regions. In return, Turkey agreed to establish “de-escalation zones”, including Aleppo, and jihadists were concentrated in Idlib. With HTS controlling Idlib, Turkey holding a vast border strip, including Afrin, and the Kurds controlling the region east of the Euphrates, Syria was effectively divided into four parts. However, the Assad regime regained control over major cities like Damascus, Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and Latakia, as well as a vast area, initiating a relatively stable period.
Second: The war has left an overwhelming trail of destruction in every aspect. Cities, roads, infrastructure, hospitals, schools, government buildings, industrial zones, and agricultural areas have been decimated. In Aleppo, Syria’s primary industrial hub, industrial zones were looted by jihadists and transported to Turkey. As a result, the economy collapsed drastically. Between 2011 and 2021, GDP shrank by more than 60%, and US sanctions under the Caesar Act blocked any chance of economic recovery. According to the World Bank, in a country with 50% unemployment, 14.5 million people—70% of the population—are struggling with extreme poverty.[1] In 2023, the Syrian pound lost 141% of its value against the dollar, inflation soared above 90%, trade collapsed, the destruction caused by the war was compounded by an earthquake, power outages became frequent, and societal poverty and despair reached critical levels. Politically, economically, or socially, it is clear that the regime and the ruling class are paralyzed, mentally exhausted, and incapable of solving the country’s problems. The production of captagon, a type of amphetamine, has become the regime’s primary source of income, while disputes, distrust, and internal struggles over shrinking economic resources have grown, accelerating corruption, inertia, and disintegration within the regime and the military. As a result, the social majority that initially opposed jihadists during the early stages of the war has fallen into despair, becoming indifferent to whether the Assad regime survives or not. History offers many similar examples. When the masses cannot organize into a force capable of changing power, they grow weary of endless struggles between war, economic collapse, and the ruling class, ultimately becoming entirely indifferent to who governs them.
Third: The regime, which relied on Russia and Iran to stay afloat, failed to adapt to changing conditions or implement necessary reforms due to ideological rigidity, entrenched habits developed over decades, corruption, and political exhaustion. Russia, for instance, urged the regime to make changes to the state structure, include the Kurds and civil opposition in governance, and pursue political reforms. While Russia did not advocate for a federative structure, it viewed a relatively autonomous framework allowing Kurds and other social groups to voice their interests as inevitable. This position was evident in numerous Russian statements and constitutional proposals discussed during the Astana process. For example, during Turkey’s 2019 offensive on Rojava, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated on October 18: “We support resolving the Kurdish issue within the framework of Syria’s territorial integrity and sovereignty through dialogue between Kurdish leaders and the legitimate government in Damascus.” However, the Assad regime refused to acknowledge the democratic demands of the Kurdish people or create an inclusive government that reflected Syria’s ethnic and cultural diversity. Instead, it leveraged Iranian support to counterbalance Russia and preserve the status quo. After the regime’s collapse, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov openly admitted: “Some time ago, when the situation posed a threat to the entire region, Russia helped the Syrian Arab Republic fight terrorism and stabilize the country. At that time, we fulfilled our mission. Subsequently, Bashar al-Assad’s government took control and attempted to foster development, but unfortunately, the situation has reached this point.
Fourth: A clear sign of the regime’s stagnation and failure to adapt to shifting dynamics in international politics was the onset of the Ukraine-Russia war. After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the US/Western bloc imposed crippling sanctions to collapse the Russian economy and indirectly engaged in the war by providing military support to Ukraine. Consequently, Russia shifted much of its economic and military focus to Ukraine, pushing Syria to the backburner. This revealed the limits of Russian imperialism’s power. Another vital development shaping international politics was the genocide Israel launched against the Palestinian people following Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack. To preserve its influence in the Middle East, Iran joined the war against Israel through Hezbollah. Israel’s efforts to devastate Lebanon, dismantle Hezbollah’s leadership, and directly target Iran with missiles and fighter jets signaled a shift in the regional balance of power. Hezbollah, a critical supporter of Assad’s regime, withdrew its forces to Lebanon, while Israel’s relentless bombing campaigns against the Syrian army further weakened the regime and strengthened jihadists in Idlib.
Fifth: The corruption of the Syrian regime, its stagnation, and society’s emotional detachment from it, combined with international dynamics, created ideal conditions for the jihadist army in Idlib to gain momentum. For years, the jihadists led by HTS, supported, trained, and armed by Turkey, the United States, and Israel, were finally mobilized against the Assad regime when the timing seemed right. The swift collapse of Syrian army frontlines under the jihadist offensive and the fall of Aleppo caused widespread shock. It is now clearer that the Syrian army lacked a robust defense line; it was disorganized, lacked coordination, and its soldiers were exhausted. The fall of Aleppo connected the war fronts from Ukraine to Syria at a critical nexus, paving the way for new negotiations among imperialist powers. On November 30, Andrew Tabler, former Syria envoy under the Trump administration, told the Wall Street Journal: “Regional and international powers intervened in Syria over a decade ago, and now the conflicts of Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon all come together and overlap in Aleppo.”[2] Observing that the Syrian army lacked the strength and capacity to repel the attacks, Russia quickly withdrew its support for the Assad regime to avoid further wasting resources and energy. Without Russian backing, it was impossible for Iran to sustain Assad on its own.
Sixth: If the Syrian army had been capable of fighting and resisting attacks, there is little doubt that Russia would have continued to support the Assad regime. Even in a scenario without the war in Ukraine but with a similarly disorganized and weakened Syrian army, Russia might have taken the risks and backed the regime as it did in the past. However, with Russia focused on the war in Ukraine, strategic calculations shifted, and the Assad regime became a secondary priority. It is important to note that Syria, a key foothold for Russia in the Middle East and a strategic gateway to the Mediterranean and Africa, is not a country that can be easily abandoned. Nevertheless, when the primary goal is to win the war in Ukraine and consolidate resources, certain tough decisions become unavoidable. It seems clear that there is an agreement between the United States and Russia encompassing both Syria and Ukraine. Maintaining Russia’s military bases in Syria, along with the strategic influence they provide, appears to be part of this pact. Under this agreement, the Syrian army withdrew to Damascus without resistance, and the Assad regime relinquished power.
Seventh: Under current circumstances, Iran has emerged as the biggest loser. Since 2013, when it intervened to prevent the Assad regime’s collapse and facilitated the deployment of Hezbollah fighters, Iran had established itself as a key force in Syria, in addition to Iraq. This secured Iran a strategic position with uninterrupted access to Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, allowing it to pressure Israel in the region. However, Syria’s break from this chain has dealt a devastating blow to Iran, severely weakening its influence in the Middle East. It is undeniable that Iran has suffered a loss in Syria. Nevertheless, while it won’t fully withdraw, it will remain under the constant threat of war from the US-Israel bloc, which has targeted it since 2003.
Eighth: The fall of the Assad regime in Syria primarily aligns with Israel’s interests. Taking advantage of the lack of significant opposition, Israel has destroyed and continues to dismantle Syria’s navy, airbases, fighter jets, missiles, helicopters, and weapons factories through ongoing bombings. At this point, it is evident that Syria has largely lost its functionality as a state. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that the Golan Heights, occupied since 1967, belong permanently to Israel and invalidated the agreements signed in 1973. The Israeli army has occupied several Druze-populated villages and towns, advancing to the outskirts of Damascus. While Israel militarily cripples Syria and occupies its territories, HTS remains on the sidelines, not intervening. Notably, the areas occupied by Israel in Syria also border Lebanon and are under Hezbollah’s control. If a structure that includes all ethnic and religious groups in Syria is not established in the coming years and chaos continues, the Druze population might align with Israel, and steps toward this outcome are already underway.
Ninth: This situation exposes who Turkey has truly benefited by aligning itself with the plans of the US-Israel bloc. It is essential to emphasize that without the leadership of an imperialist power like the United States, Turkey would lack the capacity to shape and reorganize Syria through a jihadist organization like HTS. In a context where imperialist and regional powers act based on their own interests—and where such interventions are expected to increase—Turkey lacks the military, political, and economic strength to act as a dominant force in reshaping Syria. For instance, HTS could not be removed from the UN’s list of terrorist organizations or achieve international legitimacy without US support. Similarly, Syria’s economic recovery is impossible as long as the Caesar Act remains in effect. This underscores, once again, the disparity in capacity between Turkey as a sub-imperialist power and the United States as a hegemonic imperialist power. For example, if HTS had captured Aleppo and stopped there, it would have been a smoother process for Turkey to pressure the Assad regime into accepting its plan. However, Turkey is now engaged across Syria’s fragmented landscape, and the long-term consequences of this approach are difficult to predict. Efforts by the fascist regime’s media to portray Erdoğan as a conqueror of Syria, along with narratives of supposed Syrian affection for Turkey or symbolic ceremonies to pray in the Umayyad Mosque, are attempts to obscure the on-ground realities and are aimed primarily at domestic political consumption.
Tenth: Turkey has established itself as a key force in shaping Syria’s future, leveraging both HTS and SNA/FSA (Turkish-backed the Syrian National Army/Free Syrian Army). While US imperialism seeks to use Turkey, as a NATO member, to reshape Syria according to its own agenda, Erdoğan’s regime is maneuvering to gain maximum advantage at the negotiating table. In this context, a campaign is being waged against the Kurds in Rojava, led by SNA/FSA on one side and HTS-backed Arab tribes on the other. The goal is to weaken Kurdish forces and seize their territories to prevent the Kurdish people from becoming a central player in Syria’s reconfiguration. It is clear that as long as the Kurds retain their strength, it will be challenging for jihadists to impose their vision on Syria. However, it is equally apparent that restoring Syria, fragmented for 13 years, to its original form is nearly impossible.
Eleventh: Turkey is dependent on the United States to play a role in shaping Syria’s future, but tensions between them persist over the potential status the Kurds could achieve. If the Kurds were to gain an autonomous or federative status, it would significantly strengthen the influence of the US-Israel bloc in Syria and the broader Middle East. For this reason, the US aims to ensure that the Kurds maintain their current power as much as possible. However, Turkey’s continued offensives against the Kurds and its refusal to recognize Rojava’s existence could deepen its rift with Washington. For the US to establish balance in the Middle East and further weaken Iran, which has already been dealt a heavy blow, two critical issues need to be resolved. The first is ensuring Israel’s existence and security by taking additional measures; the second is Turkey aligning itself with US plans regarding the Kurdish issue. To this end, the US is leveraging its economic and military power to pressure Turkey into accepting the Kurds’ status in Rojava. In fact, this was the main reason for US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Turkey on December 12 to meet with Erdoğan.
Twelfth: If the United States achieves the conditions it seeks in the Middle East and also reaches an agreement with Russia on the Ukrainian front, it will be able to shift its focus more quickly and effectively to preparing for a war against China in the Asia-Pacific region. In this context, Trump’s remarks about the crisis in Syria take on greater significance: “There are many crises in the world. We have received news from Syria recently, they will have to manage their own affairs because we will not interfere. France will not interfere either.” It is clear that Trump is sending a strong message to all parties: “If you don’t act under US hegemony and align with our plans, you will face chaos.” While the U. seeks to tilt the balance in the Middle East in its favor and that of Israel, it is evident that it does not plan to withdraw from Syria anytime soon. However, it is equally clear that US imperialism’s presence is not a guarantee for the Kurds. Imperialist powers, like all capitalist forces, operate solely in their own interests, as Russia’s decision to abandon Assad has once again demonstrated. Oppressed peoples can only find true allies in the revolutionary working class. Unless the working class of the Middle East organizes independently and engages in a socialist struggle against capitalism, reactionary movements cannot be stopped, and oppressed peoples will not achieve genuine freedom.
Thirteenth: Following the fall of the Assad regime, the social and political landscape in Syria has once again brought Turkey’s ruling class face-to-face with the historical Kurdish question. Turkey is currently striving to prevent the Kurds from becoming a key force in Syria, though it is clear that this policy has its limitations. Sooner or later, the Kurds will find their place in Syria’s new structure. In this context, Bahçeli’s statement on October 1—“Let Öcalan speak in Parliament”—is particularly noteworthy.[3] A plan that has been debated in ruling circles and occasionally leaked to the press could soon be implemented: Turkey recognizing Rojava’s status, becoming a protector of the Kurds, and strengthening its influence in Syria. This would allow Turkey to consolidate its position in the Middle East by controlling both the Kurds in Rojava and those in northern Iraq. In this light, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s statement during a parliamentary budget meeting, where he declared that Turkey is the protector of the Kurds, takes on added significance. Similarly, prominent figures in the Kurdish movement have echoed calls for a historical alliance between Turks and Kurds. It is worth recalling that during the 2013 Newroz celebrations in Diyarbakır, Öcalan stated in his letter that Turkey could grow stronger by advancing alongside the Kurds. Some sectors of Turkey’s bourgeoisie, along with liberal intellectuals and journalists, envision a stronger Turkey emerging from resolving the Kurdish issue. Meanwhile, CHP leader Özgür Özel addressed Erdoğan, saying: “You will be wrong if you claim that Kurds will have no representation in Syria’s structure.” It is clear that differing opinions on this matter exist within the ruling class and the state. However, it remains uncertain what aspects of the disagreements between Bahçeli and Erdoğan within the ruling bloc are about or whether these differences will lead to a split.
Fourteenth: The Middle East, as the epicenter of the Third World War, is witnessing an expansion of conflict, increased chaos and uncertainty, and looming catastrophes for workers. It is crucial to note that establishing balance in the region is not the same as placing it under US hegemony. As seen in Syria, any achieved balance is inevitably doomed to collapse. As the spiral of chaos and uncertainty deepens, no order or hegemony can be established solely on piles of rubble. Meanwhile, US imperialism seeks to shift its focus to the Asia-Pacific to contain and confront its primary rival, China. In this context, China’s Global Times recently warned that the future of civilization is at stake: “Some US politicians explicitly call for ramping up the production of munitions and establishing hot production lines to prepare for a ‘full-scale war’ with China. This approach resembles a factory built for war, with its singular purpose being the production of destruction and death. The US industrial base is increasingly being hijacked by the logic of war, turning it into a driver of global tensions. They seem to believe that military preparations and industrial mobilization will give them an advantage in their confrontation with China. But this thinking is a fatal miscalculation: Full-scale war between great powers means mutual destruction. This suggestion is not a strategic plan at all, but a form of strategic self-destruction. This is akin to playing with matches in a powder keg: You may think you can control the flames, but once a chain reaction begins, the result will be disastrous. They are akin to gamblers who know they may lose everything but continue to raise the stakes. The difference this time is that the wager is not just on America’s future but also on the future of human civilization and the world’s peaceful development.”[4] These words imply the potential use of nuclear weapons. Even without them, there are already enough weapons to destroy civilization. A war in the Asia-Pacific would not mark the beginning of the Third World War but would conclusively determine the outcomes of this ongoing conflict. Of course, this depends on whether our civilization can survive. However, this does not mean surrendering to fate. The working class and laboring majority must understand that there is no salvation without fighting capitalism, which has reached its historical limits and sharpened imperialist contradictions to the point of triggering global warfare.
Suriye’de Esad Rejimi Çöktü, Emperyalist Savaş Genişleyerek Devam Ediyor!
The Ferocity of Israel and the New Forms of the Expanding War
[1] https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2024/05/24/syria-growth-contraction-deepens-and-the-welfare-of-syrian-households-deteriorates
[2] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/setbacks-for-russia-iran-and-hezbollah-turn-into-a-catastrophe-for-syrias-assad-c3e693e8?st=j5TNkj&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
[3] Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the PKK, has led the armed struggle for Kurdish rights in Turkey. His leadership is also acknowledged by the Kurds in Syria. While the PKK represents the Kurdish movement in Turkey, the SDF serves as its counterpart within the Kurdish movement in Syria. Meanwhile, Devlet Bahçeli, as a coalition partner of Erdoğan’s fascist regime, plays a prominent role and wields significant influence within the state.
