This article was first published on July 1, 2024
One: No matter where we look in the world, we see the same thing: every day, instability and chaos are growing and deepening! The capitalist system, having reached its historical limits and become blocked, has lost its capacity to solve social and environmental problems, turning almost everything into a crisis. The crisis of imperialist hegemony and the Third World War, which is an expression of this crisis, are undermining the international institutions of the capitalist system, virtually throwing them into a void. The international institutions and rules of the imperialist-capitalist system, based on free trade, market dominance, and the glorification of bourgeois democracy through liberal capitalist ideology, are nearly obsolete. The genocide that Israel is carrying out in Palestine before the eyes of the world has once again shown that the United Nations has largely turned into an empty shell. The World Trade Organization is paralyzed by the ongoing trade war between the US and China, while the IMF has lost much of its former influence.
Two: Two: This is precisely why The Economist lamented in its May 9th editorial that “the liberal international order is slowly unraveling.” In fact, for quite some time, bourgeois institutions and ideologues have been highlighting the dangers facing the capitalist order with similar observations. For example, the theme of the 55th Munich Security Conference in February 2019 was the disintegration of the world order. Under the theme “The Great Puzzle: Who Will Pick Up the Pieces?” Wolfgang Ischinger, the chairman of the Munich Security Conference, emphasized that the liberal order is collapsing, political crises are spreading everywhere, conflicts within spheres of influence are becoming entrenched, new great powers are rising—referring to China and Russia—and a major conflict between these powers looms on the horizon.[1] There is no doubt that Israel’s genocide in Palestine, the intensifying imperialist wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the escalating power struggles from Africa to Latin America, the system’s crises in every sphere, and the rise of far-right/fascist movements are all connected to the dead-end faced by capitalism as it reaches its historical limits.
Three: As the imperialist war driven by the capitalist system escalates and spreads, the shadow of nuclear weapons looms over humanity. Recently, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that the risk of nuclear weapons being used is higher now than at any time since the Cold War. While the U.S. military is testing intercontinental ballistic missiles, Russia frequently brings up the nuclear weapons card to deter Western imperialist powers from getting more deeply involved in the war in Ukraine. After Russian imperialism invaded Ukraine, Western imperialism, led by the U.S. and the U.K., got involved in the war indirectly through the Ukrainian army. They not only armed and trained Ukrainian forces but also imposed sweeping and damaging sanctions to cripple the Russian economy. The greatest desire of this imperialist bloc was for the Ukrainian army to resist strongly against Russia, pushing Russia into a hopeless situation and causing political and social turmoil within the Putin regime. However, things did not go as planned: Although Russia, which aimed for a quick victory and the collapse of the Ukrainian government, failed to achieve its goals, it also did not succumb to the economic, political, military, and cultural pressure from the West. With support from China, Russia managed to break its international isolation, and after a period of economic contraction, it recovered by leaning on its military industry.
Four: Despite the increasing military and economic support from the West, the Ukrainian army has not been able to push back Russian forces. Instead, as time goes on, the Ukrainian military has become more worn out, showing signs of disintegration, while the economy and infrastructure have further collapsed. In an effort to prevent Ukraine’s defeat, Western imperialism has started supplying longer-range and more advanced weapons, even allowing these weapons to be used beyond occupied areas and to directly target Russian territory.[2] There is also talk of NATO training Ukrainian soldiers and setting up a centralized coordination to manage military aid. At this point, Russia is ramping up its nuclear threats. In a speech on June 5, Putin said that the West is wrong to think “Russia will never use nuclear weapons, warning that attacking Russian territory with Western weapons could trigger a global conflict. Dmitry Suslov, a member of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, was even more explicit: “If the West’s increasing involvement in the Ukraine conflict is not halted now, a full-scale ‘hot’ war between Russia and NATO will become inevitable. Moreover, due to the U.S. and NATO’s superiority in conventional weapons, this war will inevitably escalate to a nuclear level.”
Five: From any perspective, the tension between Russian imperialism and Western imperialism, led by the U.S.-British bloc, is growing. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius recently called for the reinstatement of mandatory military service, urging Germany to prepare for war with Russia by 2029, while Europe is being gripped by war hysteria. Around the same time, Putin’s visits to China and later North Korea have increased anxiety in the West. The joint statement and declaration signed after Putin’s meeting with Xi Jinping reaffirm that, in the ongoing Third World War, China and Russia form one imperialist bloc, opposing the U.S.-British-EU imperialist bloc. Additionally, Russia and North Korea signed an agreement declaring that “an attack on one of us will be treated as an attack on both of us.” With this move, Russia aims to position nuclear-armed North Korea as a counterbalance to the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific region, preventing further escalation in Ukraine.
Six: Unlike the previous two world wars, the current Third World War, centered in the Middle East and Ukraine but flaring up in various regions across the globe, is the most complex and tangled war of modern times. It’s a strange conflict where the major imperialist powers have not yet formally declared war on each other. In fact, in some areas, they negotiate over shared interests and even reach temporary agreements on certain issues. The term “proxy war” reflects this situation well, as the main powers have not directly clashed, but their proxy forces fight on the battlefield, while the major powers test each other’s strength in the background. However, the buffer zones mediating between imperialist and regional powers are quickly disappearing, and the conditions for this indirect war to turn into a direct conflict are steadily maturing. Israel’s genocide in Palestine, the regional tension spreading to Lebanon, and the first-ever direct military confrontations between Israel and Iran show the direction things are heading. Similarly, the increasing involvement of Western imperialist powers in Ukraine, the possibility of sending troops, and NATO’s potential intervention are all increasing the likelihood of a war between the major powers.
Seven: The widespread and layered crises created by the capitalist system are feeding reactionary trends in global bourgeois politics, opening the door for the rise of fascist parties and leaders. In the European Parliament elections, far-right/fascist[3] parties increased their votes in every country, becoming the leading party in France and the second in many others, marking a new phase in the global rise of far-right fascism. The historical and social backdrop of this rise shows that, for the past 40 years, the world’s bourgeoisie has implemented neoliberal policies that have dismantled welfare state practices, worsened working and living conditions for the working class, and increased unemployment and insecurity about the future. For the first time in history, young generations are being pushed out of the production process to this extent, with depression spreading and a spiritual void growing. With the revolutionary socialist movement disorganized and ineffective, the social discontent caused by capitalism is unable to challenge the system or its political representatives. Far-right/fascist parties, while fiercely criticizing the traditional left and right parties, are positioning themselves as an alternative. To draw in discontented and searching masses, they fuel hostility and nationalism, targeting immigrants/refugees as scapegoats.[4]
Eight: Far-right/fascist parties, by targeting immigrants/refugees and redirecting public anger into controlled, systemic channels, are actually benefiting the imperialist bourgeoisie of the West. This strategy hides the fact that the capitalist system is the root cause of social problems and shields the imperialist powers from scrutiny over their role in today’s migration crisis. The massive migration wave to the West, especially to Europe, started with U.S. imperialism’s invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. After 2011, as Libya, Syria, and Yemen were dragged into imperialist wars and conflicts escalated in areas of influence, millions of people from countries like Pakistan, Somalia, Afghanistan, and Libya were displaced, many became refugees, and hundreds of thousands set off for Europe in search of a better life.[5] It’s unrealistic to expect far-right/fascist parties to question this. The socialist movement can attract the working masses into revolutionary struggle by exposing the devastating problems created by capitalism, revealing the real causes of the global migration wave, and addressing the spiritual crisis that young generations are experiencing. But first, the socialist movement needs to break free from the narrow confines of identity and environmental politics that dominate it from Europe to Latin America. Social struggles can only succeed if they embrace anti-capitalist goals and connect with the workers’ movement through a global socialist perspective!
Nine: Now, let’s focus on Turkey. After the March 31 local elections, discussions about “softening” and “normalization” promoted by both the AKP/regime and the CHP continue. These terms suggest that the current regime in Turkey is far from normal. To fully understand today’s debates, it’s important to recall the political situation that emerged after the June 7, 2015 elections. As we know, Erdoğan rejected the results of that election. After months of violence and chaos, a new election was held on November 1, where the AKP secured a majority. The Bonapartist regime, being built under Erdoğan’s de facto leadership, entered a new phase with the state of emergency (OHAL) declared on July 15, 2016. The parliamentary system and its institutions were dismantled, and all powers were concentrated in Erdoğan after constitutional changes. Following the 2017 presidential referendum, the fascist regime was fully implemented with its own institutions. This regime, shaped by the 2015 alliance between the AKP, MHP, and the Ergenekonist/Eurasianist factions within the state, was built on three main pillars: 1) Securing Erdoğan’s power and allowing pro-Erdoğan business groups to freely exploit state resources. 2) Crushing the Kurdish people’s democratic demands and historical gains, both inside and outside Turkey. 3) Continuing the ambitious, unrealistic imperialist policies under Erdoğan’s leadership and ensuring Turkey claims its share of the ongoing imperialist looting in the Middle East!
Ten: However, this regime has never achieved the strength of the traditional fascist regimes seen in Germany and Italy; it has always been fragile. Certainly, here are several reasons for this: 1) Firstly, this regime was created through an alliance between a long-standing ruling party and traditional fascist and statist factions. Although it has civilian support, it did not rise to power during a chaotic period with desperate masses, unlike classic fascisms. 2) Turkey’s lack of a strong economy and capital accumulation has consistently prevented the regime from having a solid foundation and has placed it in a constant international squeeze. Turkey’s economy is deeply integrated into Western capitalism, with significant traditional capital intertwined with Western monopoly capital. The $500 billion external debt, including from state and private sectors, is owed to Western countries. 3) Turkey’s shift from the U.S. and Western alliance towards Russia, including purchasing S-400 missiles and pursuing ambitious and unrealistic imperialist policies in regions like the Eastern Mediterranean, has worsened the regime’s international isolation. The regime aimed to balance against the U.S., gain ground in Syria, and suppress Kurdish gains. Its foreign policy led to near-total international isolation for a period, and this, combined with economic fragility, increased the pressure on it significantly. 4) The regime has never managed to completely suppress societal opposition, and even at its peak, at least half of society opposed it. The international isolation and economic issues have always been the regime’s weak spots. Therefore, the regime, in need of presenting an image that democratic processes and mechanisms function and that it derives its legitimacy from the ballot box, could not abolish elections.
Eleven: In recent years, the decay within the regime has become apparent in every area. The regime is deeply entangled in corruption, from top government officials to journalists, bureaucrats, and capitalists. With this regime, the forces dominating the state have become boundless in their arbitrariness, and the plundering of state resources, corruption, bribery, seizure of property, in other words, extortion, and decay have accelerated tremendously. The crisis, unemployment, and growing poverty, coupled with neglect of social and environmental issues, have led to a focus solely on benefiting capital. The reckless behavior of regime affiliates has increased feelings of inequality and injustice among workers. Accumulating problems have intensified internal contradictions and competition within the regime. The disintegration within the regime’s cohesion has significantly increased. After the February 6, 2023 earthquakes, it became even more evident how the regime continued to exploit and disregard the masses. During this period, there was a strong desire for change among the majority of society, especially opposition groups. However, due to the fragmented and disorganized nature of the opposition led by the CHP, its approach of reducing the struggle to the ballot box, and its timid and cowardly stance, the regime stifled this desire for change. By using all state resources and its media monopoly for negative propaganda and resorting to various tricks to intimidate and control the masses, the regime manipulated the May 14-28 elections to its advantage.
Twelve: After the May 14-28 elections, the opposition fell into a state of moral defeat, while the contradictions within the regime eased somewhat, and the cracks causing disintegration did not grow further. However, this did not mean that the regime had overcome its economic and international political challenges. To address the economic issues, Erdoğan once again shifted back towards the traditional alignment with the U.S. and Western powers. Mehmet Şimşek, appointed as the Minister of Finance and Treasury, started implementing the policies of international capital monopolies and traditional capital groups closely associated with them to prevent a payments crisis, secure credit, and attract investment. This included raising interest rates.[6] The increasing difficulty of obtaining credit due to high interest rates, rising inflation, the further decline in workers’ purchasing power, especially among retirees, and the frustration of younger generations, all combined with other social problems, became clear in the March 31 elections. After 41 years, the CHP emerged as the leading party, while the regime parties suffered a major defeat, and the notion of Erdoğan’s invincibility was broken.
Thirteen: This is how the discussions of “softening” and “normalization” have come about. After losing in the elections and with diminishing popular support, Erdoğan’s goal is to work with the CHP to implement Mehmet Şimşek’s austerity program. The program will leave capitalist profits untouched but will increase taxes on workers under the pretext of “spreading out.” It’s evident that any small increase in corporate taxes for capitalists will be offset by “exemptions” and “incentives.” With rising taxes on workers, no interim wage increase for minimum wage earners, declining purchasing power due to inflation, and retirees facing greater poverty, growing discontent against the regime is inevitable. Erdoğan hopes to use the CHP to ease this discontent. He envisions a softening of conflicts among bourgeois factions while intensifying repression against the working class and the Kurdish people. While the rhetoric of “softening” and “normalization” dominates the agenda, severe penalties were imposed on Kurdish representatives and socialists, including Selahattin Demirtaş, in the fabricated Kobani case,[7] and a fascist display of power was demonstrated. The appointment of a trustee to the Hakkâri Municipality further signals that the policy of ignoring the will of the Kurdish people will persist.
Fourteen: It must be emphasized that it is inherently contradictory to have a “softening” or “normalization” while the regime continues to exist as it is. The urgent needs of the economy and the pressures from both national and international capital mean that any “softening” that leads to an alliance with the CHP would break the existing alliance with the MHP. If such a change happens due to internal and external pressures, the fascist regime cannot continue as it is today and will likely face a process of disintegration.[8] This is precisely why Bahçeli is making threats again, declaring that “The People’s Alliance (the fascist alliance) is the core of the Turkish nation and will continue resolutely”, while treating the concepts of “softening” and “normalization” as blasphemy. After the March 31, 2019 elections, Erdoğan had proposed the idea of a “Turkey Alliance,” leading to brief discussions. Bahçeli responded by saying that the idea of a Turkey Alliance only raised more questions and reaffirmed his commitment to the People’s Alliance, which he views as essential for national unity and survival. During this period, Kılıçdaroğlu (former CHP leader) was attacked in Ankara’s Çubuk, and political tensions were heightened to end the discussions about the Turkey Alliance. While the current conditions are not identical, recent events, such as developments in the Ministry of Interior and the Sinan Ateş murder, have shown that the cracks within the regime have widened. However, the three main issues sustaining the regime remain unchanged. Meanwhile, the chaotic conditions, including Israel’s preparations for war in Lebanon and the broader Middle Eastern conflict potentially involving Iran, might provide a boost to this decaying regime.
Fifteen: One more thing needs to be emphasized: The CHP has no issues with the austerity program being implemented by Mehmet Şimşek based on the demands of national and international capital. Recently, a bourgeois economist pointed out that international investors benefiting from high interest rates are worried about discussions of “early elections.” For this reason, the CHP is adopting a “moderate” stance instead of strongly pressuring the regime. However, it does not want to become the target of the backlash that this program might provoke in society and is trying to appear combative. They are holding rallies or asking regime ministers to ease some of the austerity measures, creating an impression of resistance while actually softening the public’s response. You cannot fight an austerity program that will further burden workers by simply “making demands” or normalizing the regime with “normalization” rhetoric. This shows that the bourgeois opposition cannot offer a comprehensive, coherent, and determined democratic struggle against the regime. Only the organized working class, led by the socialist movement, can provide a true democratic fight against the regime.
Sixteen: Historically, as capitalism continues to face crisis after crisis, and with the growing risk of direct confrontations among imperialist powers in a potential Third World War, while the threat of nuclear weapons hangs over humanity, the global socialist movement remains fragmented and disorganized. Despite advances in communication and global interconnectedness, socialist organizations are disconnected because there is no central authority to unite them under a single banner, as there was in the early 20th century. In the absence of such authority at both national and international levels, socialist groups are becoming insular, turning into sects, and are content with their own “we are the best” and “we have the most accurate analyses” rhetoric. However, to disperse the dark clouds of capitalism looming over humanity, stop imperialist wars, eliminate the nuclear weapons threat, hold genocidal Israel accountable, and prevent potential new genocides, the socialist movement must break free from its current deadlock. What is missing is not the struggle of the world’s workers, but revolutionary leadership capable of guiding the working class, emerging workers, and youth. Since 2000, the world has been shaken by uprisings and revolutionary situations created by rising workers. From Argentina to Kenya, workers are protesting against austerity, poverty, and the erosion of freedoms. In Western countries, large numbers of people regularly demonstrate to denounce the genocide in Palestine carried out by Israel and to oppose war. The struggle of working people who rise above religious, linguistic, and national divisions, defend human rights and freedoms, and stand against war and genocide with a sense of universal humanity, inspires hope. [9]
[1] Bkz, Utku Kızılok, Fear of the Storm at the Bourgeois Summit, https://gelecekbizim.net/burjuva-zirvelerde-firtina-korkusu/
[2] The magazine Politico reported that U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told the Ukrainian government, “You are free to use Western weapons anywhere, including deep inside Russian territory.”
[3] Defining France’s Marine Le Pen and her National Rally party as merely far-right rather than fascist is a failure to call things by their true names. Parties labeled as far-right are, in essence and reality, fascist. Using the term “far-right” instead of fascist only obscures the true nature of these movements. Moreover, traditional right-wing parties, which are central to the bourgeois order, are gradually shifting further to the right, and in some cases, the line between them and fascist parties is becoming blurred. This doesn’t mean that traditional right-wing parties are turning fascist. For instance, the Republican Party in the U.S. is not yet a fascist party, but the influence of fascist forces within it is growing rapidly, with Trump—a fascist leader—transforming the party. The historical circumstances under which today’s far-right/fascist parties emerge are undoubtedly different from those that gave rise to traditional fascist parties. In the past, examples such as Germany, Italy, and Spain showed capitalist systems deeply shaken by economic and political crises, alongside revolutionary conditions. The bourgeois political landscape had fractured, and the system couldn’t resolve its crisis through normal means. At the same time, the socialist movement wasn’t able to provide a revolutionary solution to overthrow capitalism. In these chaotic periods, traditional fascist parties had much clearer and more radical rhetoric. In contrast, today’s fascist movements and parties do not yet use such sharp rhetoric to the same degree. However, as the current system’s deadlock worsens, it is inevitable that these parties will rapidly become more militaristic, adopt harsher language, and resort to extreme nationalism and racism.
[4] Utku Kızılok, Islamophobia or Nationalism: What Does Marxism Say? https://gelecekbizim.net/853-2/
[5] Utku Kızılok, War, Syrian Migrants, and Nationalism, https://gelecekbizim.net/savas-suriyeli-gocmenler-ve-milliyetcilik/; Gülhan Dildar, The Hypocrisy of the Bourgeoisie in the Refugee Issue, https://gelecekbizim.net/multeci-sorununda-burjuvazinin-ikiyuzlulugu/
[6] Turkey, which had been placed on the grey list due to money laundering, bribery, and the financing of terrorism and was not considered reliable by international capital, was able to exit this list on June 28, 2024.
[7] Kobani is a Kurdish city in Syria. In 2014, the Islamic State invaded this city, killing Kurds and destroying it. Millions of Kurds protested in the provinces of Turkey. The HDP (People’s Democratic Party) called for a protest against the Turkish government’s support for the Islamic State on October 7, 2014. Police and fascists killed 50 people, but the government blames HDP leader Selahattin Demirtaş. Dozens of Kurdish leaders and socialists allied with the Kurdish people were imprisoned. This case is known as the Kobani Case.
[8] In this period of chaos we are living through, it is crucial to consider what will replace this regime, although that is a topic that deserves a separate discussion.
[9] Gülhan Dildar, The Struggle of World Workers Against Genocidal Israel Grows Hope, https://gelecekbizim.net/soykirimci-israile-karsi-dunya-emekcilerinin-mucadelesi-umudu-buyutuyor/
